12/31/2023 0 Comments War poet society![]() Throughout the conflict, support for what’s happening (an indicator based on positive answers to the question of whether people support the actions of Russia’s armed forces in Ukraine 3) has averaged about 75 percent (see figure 1). It is worth noting here that, at the start of the conflict, respondents to open-ended questions and focus group participants who supported Russia’s actions referred to the fighting as the “special military operation” or “SVO” (the Russian acronym for the term), while those who opposed it boldly called it what it is: a “war.” By the end of 2022, however, these differences in terminology had virtually disappeared. This approach generates a far more complex and less equivocal picture than that presented by supporters of either interpretation of of support for the “special military operation” can be pictured as concentric circles radiating from the center (the highest support) and becoming wider and wider, like rings on a tree stump, with weak and conditional support toward the outside. Some select the data that, in their interpretation, show the unequivocal support Russians display for their army’s actions, while others try to prove that such support is insignificant.įor our part, we firmly believe in analyzing all existing data and in identifying and evaluating the underlying arguments and rationales behind respondents’ answers in polling and focus groups. There are many different indicators measuring the level of support within Russian society for what the authorities officially refer to as the “special military operation.” The abundance of polling data provides fertile ground for speculation on the part of both supporters and opponents of the Putin regime. 2 Levels of Support for the “Special Operation” It builds on our previous joint research project, which focused on the first six months of the war. This paper explores the drivers behind recent trends in public opinion, as well as changes in society over the past year, from about August 2022 to August 2023. 1ĭenis Volkov is the director of the Levada Center in Moscow More >Īt the same time, public opinion in Russia is not entirely static and is worthy of closer examination. The apathetic majority can do little but wait for this difficult time to pass. ![]() The next ritual imitation of a presidential election in March 2024 will surely confirm that there is no alternative to Putin. This part of the population has chosen to become apathetic: their condition can be referred to as “ learned indifference.” Putin is a legitimate leader in such people’s eyes, so his “special military operation” must be too. But the vast majority is apathetic, and simply passively and automatically “mostly supports” what the regime is doing while waiting for “all this” to end. There are also those known as “turbo-patriots,” who earnestly and aggressively support Putin. Millions of people are opposed to authoritarianism and bloodshed, and some of them openly express their views and resist. Naturally, some Russians are unhappy with the situation. Despite the fact that such a depiction is at odds with reality, a great many Russians have accepted it as the most logical explanation for this protracted nightmare. Most Russians might not identify with the regime, but they have consolidated around the Kremlin, which they believe to be fighting tooth and nail against a West that is seeking to destroy Russia. In many ways, quite the opposite has happened. A significant part of the population has reconciled itself to the idea that they will be living under the current state of affairs for quite some time, and that they must therefore adjust to reality, which ordinary Russians are in any case unable-and often unwilling-to change.Īll the naïve predictions that popular discontent triggered by sanctions and the wartime restrictions imposed on daily life would bring down Vladimir Putin’s regime have come to nothing. ![]() In the nearly two years since Russia launched its “special military operation” against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian society has gotten used to living against the backdrop of a brutal armed conflict.
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